Carry Trade

The carry trade essentially involves taking advantage of low borrowing costs in one country (Japan for instance) and high fixed income investment rates in another country (New Zealand and Australia for instance). You get paid to 'carry' the trade over time. Traders use this strategy to capture the difference between the prevailing interest rates in the respective countries.

Through the forward market, the foreign exchange market provides a 'short-cut' for borrowing in the low interest rate country and investing in the high interest rate country. It eliminates the need to go through the actual process of borrowing (in Japan) and investing (in New Zealand or Australia).

The forward market reflects the interest rate differential in the forward points. So rather than having to actually borrow and convert yen, all a money manager has to do is sell JPY forward and buy NZD forward in one simple transaction. Because of the low interest rates in Japan and high interest rates in New Zealand, the yen trades at a forward premium relative to the New Zealand dollar, and a seller of JPY against NZD picks up these premium points.

At the end of the forward term, if the spot rate has moved up you will have a gain to add to your carry gain. But if the spot rate moves down, as it has in dramatic fashion recently, the loss will cut into your carry gain and may even wipe it out.

EXAMPLE:

Here's an example of a "yen carry trade": a trader borrows 1,000 yen from a Japanese bank, converts the funds into U.S. dollars and buys a bond for the equivalent amount. Let's assume that the bond pays 4.5% and the Japanese interest rate is set at 0%. The trader stands to make a profit of 4.5% (4.5% - 0%), as long as the exchange rate between the countries does not change. Many professional traders use this trade because the gains can become very large when leverage is taken into consideration. If the trader in our example uses a common leverage factor of 10:1, then they can stand to make a profit of 45%.

The big risk in a carry trade is the uncertainty of exchange rates. Using the example above, if the U.S. dollar was to fall in value relative to the Japanese yen, then the trader would run the risk of losing money. Also, these transactions are generally done with a lot of leverage, so a small movement in exchange rates can result in huge losses unless hedged appropriately.

The Basics of a Spot Transaction